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Draws vs. made hand(s)

Discussion in 'Omaha Hand Discussion' started by tktodorov, Jun 3, 2010.

  1. tktodorov

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    Trophy Points:
    +0 / 0 / -0
    Poker Hands:
    PL Omaha $0.20(BB) IPoker Game#2299149172

    talajbis ($24.23)
    PrawnSandwich ($20)
    Monarch1987 ($13.69)
    Hero ($20.26)
    patrathecat ($17.38)

    talajbis posts (SB) $0.10
    PrawnSandwich posts (BB) $0.20

    Dealt to Hero: :Qh: :3h: :Qd: :4c:
    fold ,
    Hero calls $0.20
    fold ,
    talajbis calls $0.10
    PrawnSandwich checks

    ($0.60) :Kh: :Qc: :Ah:
    talajbis checks
    PrawnSandwich bets $0.60
    Hero calls $0.60
    talajbis calls $0.60

    ($2.40) :Kh: :Qc: :Ah: :Jd:
    talajbis checks
    PrawnSandwich bets $2.40
    Hero calls $2.40
    talajbis raises to $12
    PrawnSandwich raises to $19.20 (AI)

    Ok, it's almost 100% sure that the two villains have the current nuts. The question is do we want to get it in with full house draw + nut flush draw? What if there's a bigger set out there?
  2. Botafogo

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    Well-Known Member

    Trophy Points:
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    Poker Hands:
    Your questions are all valid and the best way to answer them is to use Propokertools.com As you should know a set+FD is a 60-40 favourite over the nut straight on this flop, so you actually have the best hand and you definetely want to get it in on the flop. But, even if they have some AA, KK in their range, you are still a favourite:

    board: AhQsKh
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    Qh3h4dQc 53.77% 322,611 22
    AA**, TJ**, KK** 46.23% 277,367 22

    The best play here is just to raise flop and get it in, because people will wrongly stack off with TJ on flop, not realizing that they don't actually have the nuts. Also if someone has AA or KK you still have 35% equity, and you have some fold equity, because if you raise flop, they might just call and then if you push turn they might actually put you on TJ and fold AA or KK, even though not too often. In the end you are ahead of any range here, so just get it in on the flop.

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