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50PLO Nutfd + overpair turn play

Discussion in 'Omaha Hand Discussion' started by ytricky, May 6, 2010.

  1. ytricky

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    Well-Known Member

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    Poker Hands:
    Hand History for Game 3307977176 (Prima)
    $50.00 USD PL Omaha - Wednesday , May 05 , 10:07:01 ET 2010
    Table Brabantio Clown 2 (Real Money)
    Seat 4 is the button
    Seat 1: H-C-PennyPacker ( $75.47 USD )
    Seat 2: -milkfish- ( $20.83 USD )
    Seat 3: iHateJuice ( $54.73 USD )
    Seat 4: _Roughluck_ ( $61.23 USD )
    Seat 5: kabusa ( $29.30 USD )
    Seat 6: Hero ( $52.68 USD )
    kabusa posts small blind $0.25 .
    Hero posts big blind $0.50 .

    Dealt to Hero: :7h: :Ah: :4c: :As:
    H-C-PennyPacker folds
    -milkfish- raises $1.75
    iHateJuice folds
    _Roughluck_ calls $1.75
    kabusa calls $1.50
    Hero calls $1.25

    FLOP ($7.00)
    :Ts: :2h: :5h:
    kabusa checks
    Hero checks
    -milkfish- checks
    _Roughluck_ bets $7.00
    kabusa folds
    Hero calls $7.00
    -milkfish- folds

    TURN ($21.00)
    Hero checks
    _Roughluck_ bets $21.00

    The villain is 17/15 no particular read until now. How do we play the turn and what range to we put him on here?
  2. Botafogo

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    Well-Known Member

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    Poker Hands:
    Since villain is so tight, I think he definitely has mostly sets and maybe a T9JQ with hearts type of hand. Versus such a range we only have 28% equity on turn:

    board: tc2h5h9s
    Hand Equity Wins Ties
    Ah7h4cAs 28.33% 169,828 333
    tt**, 55**, T9JhQh 71.67% 429,839 333

    If we put T5** in his range, which I think such a tight player rarely bets full pot on turn with, our equity goes up to 35%.

    In both situations, we have to check/fold turn, just because we are OOP, and if we check/call turn and hit on river it is hard to get paid, because if the obvious draws hit and we pot - a tight player like this may fold river often enough to make our turn call incorrect.

    I also like your call preflop, because our Aces are crappy, and if we were to reraise, everyone will probably call behind and then we are in a tough multiway pot OOP with crappy Aces, which will not be profitable. I also like c/c flop, because if we lead flop versus so many opponents and someone decides raised us strongly, we have to get it in, but we are almost always racing against a set as a 40-60 underdog.

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